Premier League · resolved market
Will Chelsea vs. Brentford end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1053e5dd962a70f1b36497cd7c6168c9c56c8c0bc0a1a2c3543737986cae3b77
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,679
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,679 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 1c | 3,314$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +301.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc081…efeebacked Yes | 16c | 988.55$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 119 | 37%44 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1218…366bbacked Yes | 2c | 753$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fe…5850backed Yes | 3c | 551.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 4c | 333.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…f660backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 56cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 260$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…1c68backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1e…5512backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 17c | 99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 147 | 32%47 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc018…018abacked Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f9…0094backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…947bbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +64%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…0b6dbacked Yes | 21c | 52.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Chelsea vs. Brentford end in a draw?this page
- Will Brentford win on 2024-12-15?No won
- Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.