Premier League · resolved market
Will Brentford win on 2024-12-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd31fa45d4231da1c2f34f272cf341e007d475fb63e1e124009324fab78a94670
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 14c | 3,021$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.67 | 680 | 26.3%179 W · 501 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1875…eb5ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,308$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,045$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.22 | 119 | 37%44 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 12c | 1,039$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.64 | 82 | 30.5%25 W · 57 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5efc…9b2abacked Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 4c | 959.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +301.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 12c | 919.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 449 | 39.6%178 W · 271 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f4…1c68backed Yes | 8c | 535.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Yes | 4c | 498$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f47…0043backed Yes | 13c | 410.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 4c | 386.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb680…c893backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51ee…40b8backed Yes | 12c | 232.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Yes | 14c | 187.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9351…db66backed Yes | 12c | 160.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes | 14c | 143.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4d34backed Yes | 14c | 124.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95cd…32d0backed Yes | 12c | 98.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +10.6wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x847f…08a5backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Brentford win on 2024-12-15?this page
- Will Chelsea vs. Brentford end in a draw?No won
- Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.