Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10691932ed843050b512d49cebf3c82858481bbe876c92bee889c1112d767343
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $99,412
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,412 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6b1…78fdbacked No | 18c | 16,625$2,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,992.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…af18backed No | 1c | 6,675$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked No | 19c | 5,335$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.69 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd50f…4034backed No | 18c | 3,214$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.42 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 18c | 2,285$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.8 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b6…fa47backed No | 20c | 1,573$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 13c | 1,038$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.38 | 940 | 43.7%411 W · 529 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 18c | 964.54$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.7 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 18c | 835.31$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.59 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 13c | 755.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 17c | 736.64$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.74 | 84 | 29.8%25 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2d…40b1backed No | 18c | 651.29$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.23 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 8c | 631.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 4c | 572.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed No | 18c | 502$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.93 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 17c | 475.69$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.66 | 217 | 55.3%120 W · 97 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 7c | 446.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 3c | 402.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 341 | 58.9%201 W · 140 L | +25.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 17c | 386.91$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…0a8dbacked No | 16c | 329.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 12c | 316.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.82 | 986 | 53.2%525 W · 461 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 18c | 206$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 124 | 37.9%47 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 511 | 40.9%209 W · 302 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 8c | 165.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 17c | 157.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 17c | 157$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.69 | 124 | 56.5%70 W · 54 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 17c | 155.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 74 | 54.1%40 W · 34 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…c67dbacked No | 17c | 151.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 17c | 149.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 570 | 19.8%113 W · 457 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ddc…03c3backed No | 17c | 145.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee4…4b3ebacked No | 19c | 134.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3542…24f0backed No | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -5.4wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11a2…0532backed Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -7.7wins | -0.17per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…5270backed No | 19c | 122$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 19c | 121.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 546 | 50.4%275 W · 271 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b6…98b4backed No | 18c | 117.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4f…6689backed No | 18c | 113$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…dfc7backed No | 17c | 112$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ac…e7d7backed No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 206 | 47.6%98 W · 108 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x323c…73e4backed No | 17c | 93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 19c | 84.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 223 | 33.2%74 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 17c | 82.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 673 | 48.1%324 W · 349 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 16c | 79.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 408 | 50.7%207 W · 201 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 19c | 76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 18c | 67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…fcdcbacked Yes | 78c | 19.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c32…3f32backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-15?this page
- Will FC Porto vs. Moreirense FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-03-15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.