South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-10-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1079f3f993c6d0ea5f8d84c03fbd3a8c5ffceb1d1c449425990832fd46b481e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $218,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $225,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x757d…a7ccbacked Yes | 2c | 120,005$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 1cpaid | +3,233.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 50c | 50,000$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a0…dab5backed No | 1c | 10,100$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,999 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +3,280.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 47c | 6,378$2,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,411.33 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 3,955$1,965 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989.97 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…edb3backed Yes | 54c | 2,784$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…e181backed Yes | 53c | 2,542$1,347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,347.26 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b7…e9babacked Yes | 52c | 2,219$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x512b…c0c3backed No | 50c | 1,643$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0be5…da76backed Yes | 51c | 1,642$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Yes | 7c | 1,400$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.25 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…5696backed No | 48c | 1,131$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 49c | 933.99$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.66 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…390abacked Yes | 52c | 699.99$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84df…e3b8backed No | 49c | 699.95$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 549.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 88 | 8%7 W · 81 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 50c | 491.09$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.55 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 54c | 444.44$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 7c | 441.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08be…5b1fbacked Yes | 54c | 419.89$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.57 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 53c | 306$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.94 | 318 | 27%86 W · 232 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc648…259cbacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52e…e2c4backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 52c | 281.34$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.61 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 71c | 277.31$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.08 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 516 | 54.8%283 W · 233 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 47c | 186$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.58 | 124 | 65.3%81 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebb…deffbacked Yes | 54c | 183.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda49…5307backed Yes | 40c | 170$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…a9b5backed Yes | 53c | 152.83$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 56c | 138$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed No | 49c | 129.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…36f0backed Yes | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…a062backed Yes | 40c | 102.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 53c | 99.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x624a…287cbacked Yes | 51c | 97.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 46c | 92.87$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 162 | 34.6%56 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffc1…830fbacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…842cbacked Yes | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Yes | 53c | 56.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c7e…da31backed Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked No | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 41c | 39.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 92 | 40.2%37 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed No | 67c | 36.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…eea2backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aed…2ef3backed Yes | 77c | 28.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed No | 52c | 24.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc3…b55bbacked Yes | 51c | 22.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 66c | 15.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Cruz Azul win on 2025-10-21?this page
- Will Club Necaxa vs. CF Cruz Azul end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Club Necaxa win on 2025-10-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.