NFL · resolved market
Who will start week 7 for the Steelers?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x107bcae1b3e2135b9e352b32738eb930376d423681140d9a6f88322cea2f698b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wilsonof Fields, Wilson
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Fields | 3c | 1,489$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 202 | 46%93 W · 109 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b03…ac9bbacked Fields | 2c | 821.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98c…336dbacked Fields | 4c | 332$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Fields | 7c | 293.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Fields | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 528 | 28.6%151 W · 377 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b6…3056backed Fields | 5c | 234.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Fields | 12c | 186.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 77 | 18.2%14 W · 63 L | -11.0wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Fields | 23c | 169.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…498abacked Fields | 63c | 158.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e15…9742backed Fields | 16c | 151.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Wilson | 50c | 144.29$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.62 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944a…a9adbacked Wilson | 67c | 128.5$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.4 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb355…93fbbacked Fields | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Fields | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 162 | 59.9%97 W · 65 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…2ac8backed Fields | 24c | 84.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Fields | 18c | 79.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83b2…0c25backed Wilson | 60c | 72.25$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…1aa4backed Wilson | 80c | 62.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe883…12b4backed Wilson | 65c | 58.19$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4294…ee29backed Fields | 27c | 50.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…c3a3backed Fields | 23c | 49.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Wilson | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Wilson | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 31cpaid | +294.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…3143backed Wilson | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…d015backed Wilson | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.