Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1081ecf420b002f48f7a5bd8804cceac7605baa3162e25548eeaaf68c4e1d537
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Team Nemesis, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Nemesis | 3c | 2,367$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.64 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 1,856$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.79 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Nemesis | 1c | 1,846$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Nemesis | 20c | 1,777$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.3 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Team Nemesis | 16c | 1,022$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Team Nemesis | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…7a8fbacked Team Nemesis | 21c | 957.88$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…0848backed Team Nemesis | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 897.44$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.44 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Nemesis | 3c | 520.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team Nemesis | 4c | 444.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Nemesis | 26c | 347.97$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.07 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…0f85backed Team Nemesis | 21c | 228.57$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 117 | 42.7%50 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Team Nemesis | 11c | 218.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…eaf5backed Team Nemesis | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…a898backed Nigma Galaxy | 74c | 184.99$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.47 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Nemesis | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb39a…abedbacked Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 108.55$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.88 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4d…c654backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 92.49$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 22.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 54 | 70.4%38 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Nigma Galaxy | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - 1win Essence Group BNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)Nigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.