Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8eabec315207d969210b742dfed03b636a896cdc550c1ce609e541ae48e7550
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Nigma Galaxy, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 2,164$1,271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.84 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cd…a898backed Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 2,118$1,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449c…eaf5backed Team Nemesis | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa80c…5a6dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 64c | 1,641$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.35 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 63cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Nemesis | 41c | 1,633$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.02 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Team Nemesis | 43c | 1,157$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea4d…c654backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 1,059$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Team Nemesis | 34c | 882.35$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 340 | 51.5%175 W · 165 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Team Nemesis | 40c | 527$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.66 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Nemesis | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7786…c005backed Team Nemesis | 24c | 456$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.44 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 368.72$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.11 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe479…70dfbacked Team Nemesis | 38c | 366.66$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f11…5d87backed Nigma Galaxy | 58c | 338.95$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.65 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…13f4backed Team Nemesis | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Team Nemesis | 40c | 186.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4b…c865backed Team Nemesis | 41c | 168.29$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x56d6…4404backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 163.35$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.64 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa590…271cbacked Team Nemesis | 39c | 130.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x021a…d3aebacked Team Nemesis | 39c | 117.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Nigma Galaxy | 60c | 104.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Team Nemesis | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 334 | 45.2%151 W · 183 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 200 | 46%92 W · 108 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 63cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Nigma Galaxy | 62c | 32.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Nigma Galaxy | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - 1win Essence Group BNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.