Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - 1win Essence Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x091a99dcf5cbfc213cdc0d74bbd2b9a02af335881e4f960e7027a83601d54781
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nigma Galaxyof Team Nemesis, Nigma Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,960
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x274e…1d72backed Team Nemesis | 18c | 2,678$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 24cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Team Nemesis | 14c | 1,904$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.15 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Team Nemesis | 7c | 1,663$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.07 | 111 | 50.5%56 W · 55 L | +14.2wins | +0.13per pick | 38cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a47…235bbacked Team Nemesis | 6c | 1,500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Team Nemesis | 4c | 1,485$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 301 | 38.9%117 W · 184 L | -20.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13c7…11d9backed Team Nemesis | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.01 | 335 | 41.2%138 W · 197 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…0848backed Team Nemesis | 22c | 925.22$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d9…c9f6backed Team Nemesis | 6c | 727.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Nemesis | 19c | 700$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…2aa9backed Team Nemesis | 18c | 605.05$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Team Nemesis | 4c | 556.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 378 | 32.5%123 W · 255 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Nemesis | 14c | 552.1$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Team Nemesis | 22c | 534.61$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.47 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -8.5wins | -0.18per pick | 42cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Team Nemesis | 6c | 365.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…f7dbbacked Team Nemesis | 19c | 330$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 88 | 42%37 W · 51 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…4287backed Team Nemesis | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…24eebacked Team Nemesis | 16c | 289$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Team Nemesis | 6c | 230.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Team Nemesis | 17c | 227.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 221.99$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 156$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 152.69$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Team Nemesis | 19c | 146$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Team Nemesis | 16c | 145.58$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team Nemesis | 7c | 139.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Team Nemesis | 20c | 123.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 536 | 34%182 W · 354 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Nemesis | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Team Nemesis | 16c | 118.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Nigma Galaxy | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…e371backed Team Nemesis | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 515 | 44.9%231 W · 284 L | +40.9wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Team Nemesis | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked Team Nemesis | 18c | 69.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 61.54$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Team Nemesis | 28c | 38.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456a…6a90backed Nigma Galaxy | 72c | 38.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e1…8d38backed Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Nigma Galaxy | 79c | 33.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…d5a3backed Nigma Galaxy | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -16.7wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…f12fbacked Nigma Galaxy | 78c | 16.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - 1win Essence Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 WinnerNigma Galaxy won
- Game Handicap: NGX (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5)Nigma Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.