Tennis · resolved market
Guangzhou Open: Veronika Erjavec vs Tatjana Maria
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x108a42d61eb360b07c7be4899b4f378142d8faa4eb4a6dc5a60926f71e61c960
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Erjavecof Erjavec, Maria
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,693
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,693 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Erjavec | 67c | 2,914$1,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.86 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Maria | 62c | 1,964$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.95 | 289 | 52.6%152 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Erjavec | 38c | 1,763$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,085.55 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60b6…eb2bbacked Maria | 59c | 1,110$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.97 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…2d88backed Erjavec | 58c | 979.07$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.07 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…4734backed Maria | 38c | 831$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.12 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Maria | 37c | 803.03$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Erjavec | 45c | 757.64$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.76 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85e2…0980backed Maria | 65c | 617.94$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Erjavec | 44c | 541.26$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.33 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Erjavec | 57c | 513.93$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.2 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Maria | 37c | 441.99$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.25 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Maria | 45c | 406$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.7 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Maria | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Erjavec | 57c | 380.11$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.84 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Maria | 47c | 296.98$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.74 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Erjavec | 50c | 234.05$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.11 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Maria | 54c | 225.93$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…3f70backed Maria | 55c | 218.18$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Maria | 49c | 213.56$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.56 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Erjavec | 63c | 211$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.86 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Maria | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Maria | 36c | 192$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Erjavec | 44c | 178.57$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Maria | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Maria | 59c | 169.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Maria | 54c | 167.51$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Erjavec | 46c | 148.62$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41cc…26eabacked Maria | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Maria | 25c | 117.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Erjavec | 50c | 110.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.83 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Erjavec | 55c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Maria | 48c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed Erjavec | 62c | 47.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Erjavec | 40c | 43.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Erjavec | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Maria | 56c | 25.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa088…9972backed Erjavec | 56c | 20.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc286…d936backed Maria | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.