NBA · resolved market
Trail Blazers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 121.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10bef6321b78e3e33830c952f3ae3cfe5a93852ed56bc3b2b69b5c19ff95ad59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,375
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2c9c…f8dcbacked Under | 48c | 211$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ec…be8abacked Over | 52c | 205$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40d9…a4d1backed Under | 48c | 203$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb184…0465backed Over | 52c | 191$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaec…ec97backed Under | 48c | 190$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…50c3backed Under | 48c | 188$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…0831backed Under | 48c | 188$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6148…440cbacked Under | 50c | 182$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…d3b7backed Over | 52c | 181$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf63…cf95backed Over | 52c | 180$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6c…2c7fbacked Under | 48c | 178$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da9…f597backed Over | 52c | 177$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5904…89d7backed Over | 52c | 168$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7927…9b7abacked Over | 50c | 167$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Trail Blazers vs. Pistons: 1H O/U 121.5this page
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Pistons (-7.5)Trail Blazers won
- Trail Blazers vs. PistonsPistons won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pistons: 1H MoneylinePistons won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pistons: O/U 234.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pistons: O/U 236.5Over won
- Trail Blazers vs. Pistons: O/U 237.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.