Tennis · resolved market
BNP Paribas Nordic Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Aleksandar Kovacevic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x111c5b7399c03c032570acefad74c1b95b557571d4841215699978abc0c00f60
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sonegoof Sonego, Kovacevic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Kovacevic | 10c | 1,000$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 192 | 34.4%66 W · 126 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…3b99backed Kovacevic | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 85 | 30.6%26 W · 59 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Sonego | 64c | 862.5$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.5 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed Kovacevic | 35c | 777$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.95 | 576 | 45.5%262 W · 314 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d61…3a5bbacked Sonego | 65c | 712.38$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.33 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Sonego | 67c | 498.51$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.51 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Kovacevic | 33c | 440.91$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.5 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Kovacevic | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Kovacevic | 31c | 359$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.39 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kovacevic | 37c | 292.65$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.67 | 11,877 | 43.3%5,143 W · 6,734 L | +19.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa5…d58bbacked Sonego | 73c | 291.99$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Sonego | 63c | 291.67$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.92 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | -14.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Kovacevic | 38c | 257.79$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sonego | 62c | 225.03$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Sonego | 65c | 212.56$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.01 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed Sonego | 67c | 195$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.77 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Sonego | 56c | 185.67$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Kovacevic | 30c | 185.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Sonego | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kovacevic | 34c | 145.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 951 | 40.1%381 W · 570 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Kovacevic | 33c | 140.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ec26backed Kovacevic | 39c | 124.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 659 | 39.6%261 W · 398 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Kovacevic | 48c | 107.79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.74 | 6,798 | 36.9%2,507 W · 4,291 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…a30cbacked Sonego | 67c | 104.01$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.39 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Sonego | 68c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Kovacevic | 37c | 67.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Sonego | 65c | 64.62$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kovacevic | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Kovacevic | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eba…f2fabacked Sonego | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.