Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x112d9cbc1c4002fe7c7b67e009e705f14ace690d4d9634013f4691c58c97c170
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 31c | 479.21$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.08 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 396.64$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 225.95$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 52c | 201.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 55c | 200$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.82 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 44c | 132.84$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 11c | 124.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2084…e384backed Yes | 14c | 108.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 76c | 92$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.95 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 32c | 63.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 61.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa817…95d7backed Yes | 50c | 57.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked Yes | 80c | 52.92$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 36c | 51.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 33c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 52c | 48.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 58c | 45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 57c | 34.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 68c | 34.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 63c | 31.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 63c | 26.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 41c | 26.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 46c | 26.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 65c | 25.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 22.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 76c | 21.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…a02bbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 66c | 19.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 59c | 18.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 90°F or higher on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.