Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x112efddffbeb5f5ef1ba61e0eb4fe0f4ef474e26e37abf8376552c69c0016098
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,439
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 0c | 3,789$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 1,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed Yes | 62c | 542.39$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.33 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 344.76$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed Yes | 12c | 256.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 236.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 233.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 40c | 161.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 11c | 153.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 52c | 145.1$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.3 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0020…16b9backed No | 73c | 139.73$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.86 | 183 | 33.3%61 W · 122 L | -17.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 59c | 127.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 13c | 125.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 42c | 111.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 57c | 109.32$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 107.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.14 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 57c | 105.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 26c | 102.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 43c | 102.91$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 20c | 98.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked Yes | 57c | 96.69$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.46 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 35c | 96.33$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 36c | 95.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 59c | 83.01$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.71 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 80$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.8 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 61c | 71.84$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 46c | 70.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 52c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 21c | 68.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x054c…0a1abacked No | 73c | 68.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.43 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 37c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 63.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 35c | 62.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 61c | 62.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 39c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 28c | 58.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 42c | 55.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 21c | 53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 30c | 52.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 39c | 51.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 40c | 50.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 40c | 49.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 46c | 47.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 41c | 45.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c5…36d1backed No | 59c | 45.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x558a…9fbebacked Yes | 44c | 45.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 50c | 44.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 50c | 43.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc30b…86f4backed Yes | 24c | 42.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…18e8backed Yes | 27c | 42.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefee…ca88backed Yes | 27c | 41.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 54c | 40.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 40.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 39.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…57bfbacked No | 61c | 39.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 63c | 36.9$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 34.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 31.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…70e1backed No | 70c | 29.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 44c | 29.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…26b7backed No | 59c | 28.35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed54…4967backed No | 58c | 28.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 498 | 54.6%272 W · 226 L | +46.4wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 26.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 53c | 23.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed No | 63c | 19.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed No | 65c | 18.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…a21abacked No | 59c | 18.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 66c | 17.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 19?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.