Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa626a7ead74a5ad8dd678eecc6572fed73c9622b26a58377ec7cd9118f49dd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed No | 1c | 2,347$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 413.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 50c | 295.15$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.94 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 73c | 291.95$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.75 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 64c | 283.31$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.61 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 281.95$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 28c | 211.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.09 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed Yes | 69c | 196.55$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.94 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42f8…de50backed Yes | 31c | 177.8$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.91 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 32c | 177.18$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.94 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 163.55$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 10c | 156.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 154.37$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 93 | 30.1%28 W · 65 L | +6.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…3f6dbacked No | 10c | 149.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 12.7%10 W · 69 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -72.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 144.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 71c | 143.03$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa045…282abacked Yes | 46c | 139.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77db…af03backed No | 64c | 117.35$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.36 | 41 | 78%32 W · 9 L | +6.0wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 111.58$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.53 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3886…b492backed Yes | 31c | 111$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 561 | 18.4%103 W · 458 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 72c | 104.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.07 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 77c | 99.66$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…be31backed Yes | 35c | 96.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.76 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ad…2dbbbacked Yes | 68c | 91.84$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 106 | 45.3%48 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558a…9fbebacked Yes | 77c | 89.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 59c | 88.83$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.41 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…05fbbacked Yes | 38c | 86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 130 | 42.3%55 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 32c | 79.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 37c | 76.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b0…64f3backed Yes | 38c | 74.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 36c | 67.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 36c | 65.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fc…c493backed Yes | 34c | 65.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 74c | 64.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 64.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…0c7ebacked Yes | 60c | 63.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 62c | 62.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 51c | 59.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 30c | 59.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.36 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 48c | 56.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 28c | 54.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 35c | 54.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 51c | 51.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed Yes | 49c | 51.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 38c | 49.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 70c | 48.9$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd00a…c12dbacked Yes | 38c | 48.4$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.01 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 43.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed No | 60c | 41.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 33c | 39.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.23 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 58c | 33.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 31.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 76c | 31.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 117 | 70.9%83 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 40c | 27.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 64c | 22.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 74c | 22.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 21.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed No | 76c | 21.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 69c | 19.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf64f…99d7backed No | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on April 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on April 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C or higher on April 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.