Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11351369488cfa85f75a456d3009ebd7970da4d242c1025af9a4ae8c38ba4fcf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 25c | 6,855$1,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,688.79 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 79c | 3,188$2,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.46 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 58c | 399.99$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 70c | 379$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.7 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 22c | 370.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 74c | 337.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 20c | 332.71$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…d35fbacked Over | 80c | 325.06$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.06 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 29c | 299.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 67c | 296.64$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.09 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 79c | 253.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4f…75f2backed Over | 70c | 228.59$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.58 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 35c | 175.63$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.07 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 42c | 171.8$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.16 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x782e…b317backed Over | 61c | 165.28$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 80c | 129.09$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 22c | 124.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 21c | 124.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 70c | 122.63$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 18c | 120.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 67c | 111.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Over | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Under | 21c | 87.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 21c | 64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 24c | 59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 24c | 52.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…6f86backed Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 90 | 68.9%62 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Over | 80c | 27.9$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 130 | 73.1%95 W · 35 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9867…bc76backed Over | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-1.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-1.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.