Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x472b3b125beaed429426437102134f1cb0ed4dd6ea65aa10dcd2a9e8c7aa5dd2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 9c | 3,363$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.35 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 1,447$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.38 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 32c | 625.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.31 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Under | 68c | 511.86$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.86 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 70c | 392$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 170 | 55.3%94 W · 76 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 35c | 337.14$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 13c | 305.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 67c | 179.98$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 32c | 157.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 24c | 154.71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 32c | 151.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 78c | 140.03$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 32c | 112.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 37c | 107.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.39 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 31c | 103.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…c3ddbacked Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.1wins | +0.31per pick | 39cpaid | +151%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 20c | 95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 31c | 81.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 76c | 74.06$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…44e8backed Over | 16c | 72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Over | 33c | 63.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 32c | 60.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Under | 72c | 55.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.5wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 74c | 49.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 74c | 48.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 30c | 35.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf112…21ebbacked Under | 71c | 31.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…7f64backed Under | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-1.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-1.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.