Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10f9aa29560739973407d961a1ce19eb2bd6e109787b9bc2b9b0d8214dcaf43b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Over | 57c | 5,457$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,357.05 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 5,322$2,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,556.58 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…fd6bbacked Under | 43c | 4,674$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 3,077$1,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,506.71 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 44c | 2,515$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.49 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 44c | 2,036$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$887.14 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.99 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 55c | 1,510$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679.48 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…f8fdbacked Under | 48c | 1,369$657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 56c | 1,300$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.07 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 54c | 927.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.09 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.19 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 46c | 750.58$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.15 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed Over | 52c | 686.07$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.11 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da4…f0a4backed Under | 19c | 524.91$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.24 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Over | 57c | 354.81$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.14 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 43c | 301.56$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.83 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fcd…42f2backed Under | 46c | 299.99$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x388b…25ddbacked Under | 52c | 287.43$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Under | 45c | 262.71$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.22 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 38c | 257.58$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 44c | 243.29$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.33 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…6e5dbacked Over | 52c | 230.77$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…d206backed Over | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 49c | 191.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Under | 45c | 180$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 115 | 43.5%50 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 61c | 163.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.46 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 62c | 160.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.88 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Under | 46c | 143.48$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed Under | 8c | 140.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 130.55$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 54c | 125.53$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.53 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 50c | 123.4$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +12.1wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +73%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…d99cbacked Under | 47c | 121.28$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2db3…667abacked Under | 60c | 116.65$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.11 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 110.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.97 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8577…199abacked Over | 78c | 101$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.36per pick | 53cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…79a5backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 21 | 85.7%18 W · 3 L | +6.7wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e4…bf8abacked Over | 51c | 92.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd265…a7ecbacked Over | 35c | 88.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 37c | 86.49$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Under | 60c | 83.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 51c | 75.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 35c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.5 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…3a2abacked Under | 48c | 53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x677f…1c6ebacked Over | 35c | 44.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Under | 46c | 43.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Over | 55c | 43.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Under | 46c | 40.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Over | 32c | 39.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 109 | 43.1%47 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 54c | 36.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 54c | 36.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…2a05backed Over | 51c | 34.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 47c | 33.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 50c | 30.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa616…203ebacked Over | 53c | 30.74$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…54f0backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…ad8dbacked Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +13.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5558…f9c4backed Under | 47c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed Under | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d98…84cabacked Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1878…85e2backed Over | 45c | 24.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x542d…63aebacked Under | 52c | 19.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5this page
- Spread: TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf (-1.5)VfL Bochum won
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-1.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.