NHL · resolved market
Blues vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1139dca033ceef2f2eeda745eadac8b269021686d33c902e810f66e2fe4cacea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,596
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,596 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a6c…236dbacked Over | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Under | 51c | 1,956$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.56 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 1,902$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970.02 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 1c | 1,002$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 982.14$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.14 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 44c | 793.88$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.31 | 515 | 50.7%261 W · 254 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…1b77backed Over | 55c | 540.93$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.93 | 122 | 58.2%71 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 44c | 456.73$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.96 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 43c | 321.76$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.36 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Over | 56c | 320.91$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.2 | 100 | 50%50 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 44c | 306.82$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 55c | 282.44$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.1 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 35c | 257.2$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 45c | 221.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 184.02$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd1…7511backed Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 47c | 167.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.6 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Under | 51c | 140$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 56c | 95.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.04 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Under | 44c | 92.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.57 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…c76fbacked Over | 57c | 85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…4374backed Under | 46c | 54.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 77c | 46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69da…d752backed Over | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Under | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 52c | 42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 45c | 41.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…2415backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5f…e3c6backed Over | 57c | 34.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 55c | 27.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 60c | 26.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…e020backed Over | 58c | 25.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fb…f24cbacked Over | 57c | 20.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Over | 54c | 19.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 203 | 50.7%103 W · 100 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blues vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5this page
- Blues vs. BlackhawksBlues won
- Blues vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Blues vs. Blackhawks: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Blues (-1.5)Blues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.