TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
MODUSof MODUS, Team Lynx
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,640
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,727

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,640 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Lynx68c2,353$1,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,591.9380256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed MODUS38c2,294$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.1945750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked MODUS33c2,256$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.811,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Lynx67c1,595$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.331,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MODUS32c1,455$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.121,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Lynx68c822.49$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.4336654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83e4…757dbacked Team Lynx5c750$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-41%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked MODUS60c621.73$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.6967043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked MODUS32c517.1$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.6395342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Lynx68c457.05$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$310.886659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed MODUS33c278.62$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.451,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Lynx66c226.56$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.1261456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed MODUS35c157.29$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7530534.4%105 W · 200 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8d2…2381backed MODUS66c148.42$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.465450%27 W · 27 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3d…cfffbacked MODUS27c138.16$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.8636759.1%217 W · 150 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked MODUS32c106.9$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.271,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Team Lynx61c90$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.71,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked MODUS58c61.22$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8577256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx32c52.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.952,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Lynx34c50.19$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.061,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38c5…0f5cbacked MODUS33c47.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.1558250.5%294 W · 288 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Team Lynx33c46.69$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2437223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS33c43.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.752,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Team Lynx67c35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.451,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Team Lynx34c29.42$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9cd0…c747backed Team Lynx79c18.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.816167.2%41 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.