Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda780e476ff9c6813d079499a0c7f69ccdb964737b9f4dd636c430ce7ac87d85
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MODUSof MODUS, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,039
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MODUS | 45c | 475.84$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.91 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked MODUS | 75c | 384.09$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.81 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Lynx | 22c | 293.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.01 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked MODUS | 59c | 288.51$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.64 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…bd9abacked MODUS | 28c | 250$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed MODUS | 29c | 218.43$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.09 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…dfb9backed Team Lynx | 72c | 216.3$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f01…0d90backed Team Lynx | 77c | 199.48$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b86…dd8fbacked MODUS | 23c | 195.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.29 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed MODUS | 56c | 187.04$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.65 | 233 | 42.9%100 W · 133 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff6…3a39backed Team Lynx | 20c | 142.37$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb795…1a30backed Team Lynx | 71c | 138.39$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Team Lynx | 15c | 124.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Team Lynx | 44c | 117.42$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked MODUS | 28c | 111.65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Team Lynx | 51c | 111.23$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 254 | 57.9%147 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Lynx | 35c | 109.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked MODUS | 28c | 99.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Team Lynx | 70c | 86.67$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1752…682bbacked MODUS | 30c | 83.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Team Lynx | 51c | 79.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6af4…e516backed Team Lynx | 76c | 64.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c4…26f2backed Team Lynx | 72c | 64.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.36 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Team Lynx | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 63cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccbd…f1b7backed Team Lynx | 72c | 49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Team Lynx | 72c | 48.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0c…d43abacked Team Lynx | 71c | 46.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 212 | 53.8%114 W · 98 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2467…6878backed Team Lynx | 43c | 44.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3177…cb28backed MODUS | 28c | 44.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.01 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…db37backed Team Lynx | 72c | 41.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Team Lynx | 67c | 41.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.97 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked MODUS | 32c | 38.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…83e4backed Team Lynx | 72c | 34.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f2…3374backed Team Lynx | 70c | 24.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS | 53c | 22.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked MODUS | 63c | 20.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bd…ae36backed Team Lynx | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group Athis page
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Lynx - Game 1 WinnerMODUS won
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerMODUS won
- Game Handicap: LYNX (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5)MODUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.