Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x896b1ac8e4724bb0c56b5912d50bb37cd93f6081c0dd70afc9beffb6157583a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MODUSof MODUS, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,304
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked MODUS | 36c | 1,711$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.65 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Lynx | 64c | 1,305$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.24 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked MODUS | 29c | 492.96$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Team Lynx | 71c | 484.38$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.91 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Lynx | 66c | 460.66$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.71 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed MODUS | 56c | 269.04$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Lynx | 59c | 241.13$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.22 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7627…4404backed Team Lynx | 16c | 237.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 148 | 32.4%48 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Team Lynx | 62c | 227.49$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.16 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7c…4c16backed Team Lynx | 52c | 186.77$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 121 | 36.4%44 W · 77 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked MODUS | 31c | 143.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.19 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x483a…01d6backed MODUS | 32c | 104.91$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.34 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Team Lynx | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 150 | 64.7%97 W · 53 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Team Lynx | 58c | 99.1$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00f8…2c23backed Team Lynx | 57c | 96.84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 305 | 34.4%105 W · 200 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked MODUS | 54c | 80.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed MODUS | 38c | 64.41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked MODUS | 80c | 56.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1cb…2345backed MODUS | 50c | 51.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 259 | 35.5%92 W · 167 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…52eabacked Team Lynx | 42c | 44.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked MODUS | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed MODUS | 79c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Lynx (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group AMODUS won
- Dota 2: MODUS vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerMODUS won
- Game Handicap: LYNX (-1.5) vs MODUS (+1.5)MODUS won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.