Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 July 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1144c3f496fed4c564e9a5c9849bca231db47d5cf55ef13de3d2742f1d3b8325
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,183
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,183 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x252d…c456backed No | 72c | 3,255$2,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.89 | 477 | 21.6%103 W · 374 L | -21.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…06bbbacked Yes | 17c | 1,769$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,145$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes | 15c | 878.77$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.68 | 878 | 28.4%249 W · 629 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…d490backed Yes | 15c | 795.73$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.56 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed Yes | 25c | 782.29$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.55 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 707.23$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.83 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 16c | 535.6$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966e…3df4backed Yes | 2c | 495.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 8c | 454.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 73c | 412.8$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.9 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked No | 80c | 248.75$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.75 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed No | 80c | 171.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…5661backed No | 66c | 111.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367e…b15ebacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc250…8d6ebacked No | 70c | 85$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 73cpaid | -12%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed No | 40c | 33.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…d67fbacked Yes | 60c | 33.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +262.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x492b…103fbacked No | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 July 20-26?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 July 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 July 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 July 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 July 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 July 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.