Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 20-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b5e793b1c2fd81be8132829340ab6e3a1aa96a902501252908c60b8618f363a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $148,147
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2723…8d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 12,870$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.77 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5360…1f6fbacked Yes | 3c | 8,891$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.55 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b3…653cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,608$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78cb…f366backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…b8c9backed Yes | 3c | 3,319$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 93 | 7.5%7 W · 86 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…5c78backed Yes | 6c | 3,298$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…ccf4backed Yes | 3c | 3,178$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa9…47a9backed Yes | 7c | 2,856$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309b…13d4backed Yes | 4c | 2,767$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 68c | 1,802$1,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.75 | 281 | 13.2%37 W · 244 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa19c…de6bbacked Yes | 35c | 1,428$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.27 | 54 | 24.1%13 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked Yes | 1c | 1,378$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 197 | 0%0 W · 197 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes | 31c | 1,347$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.65 | 406 | 43.3%176 W · 230 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5816…8167backed Yes | 11c | 1,189$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,131$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 212 | 6.6%14 W · 198 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…3ce1backed Yes | 5c | 1,076$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 137 | 9.5%13 W · 124 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea5…8f4cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,015$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.11 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaac…c198backed Yes | 62c | 929.68$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.7 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…ac2bbacked Yes | 2c | 887.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 2c | 860.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96c3…d0efbacked Yes | 62c | 825.72$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.3 | 84 | 67.9%57 W · 27 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa813…04fbbacked No | 53c | 749.99$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.01 | 99 | 64.6%64 W · 35 L | +17.0wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3a…d490backed Yes | 2c | 597.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…5661backed Yes | 15c | 528.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.77 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…bb0abacked No | 50c | 500$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.8 | 167 | 29.3%49 W · 118 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 402$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd0…a85bbacked Yes | 22c | 350.62$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 113 | 28.3%32 W · 81 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5490…1806backed Yes | 5c | 350.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…4524backed No | 79c | 339.55$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 162 | 53.7%87 W · 75 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe190…0a5dbacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 103 | 1.9%2 W · 101 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf632…02aabacked Yes | 7c | 249$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 73 | 21.9%16 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x065c…47debacked Yes | 21c | 248.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…5f77backed No | 55c | 183.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +7.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6298…b24bbacked Yes | 7c | 160$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 2cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1137…4ed5backed Yes | 40c | 134.88$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…492cbacked No | 80c | 124.22$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…0a45backed Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefca…3650backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ab5…db66backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…d0f8backed No | 50c | 53.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3890…e296backed Yes | 42c | 48.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe874…52a4backed Yes | 43c | 46.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1944…c05dbacked No | 56c | 46.1$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +8.0wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…28c5backed No | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x492b…103fbacked No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 69cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 20-26?this page
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 July 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 July 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 July 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,100 July 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,200 July 20-26?No won
- Will Ethereum reach $2,300 July 20-26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.