Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x114f2e4fa61dcddbd939b07e408c1b968ca4957fabb3d62da4422a1b6317e1ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,540
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,540 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 71c | 461.36$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.66 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…7f28backed No | 17c | 339.74$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.41 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 316.49$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 53c | 299.95$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.97 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 6c | 254.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 108.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.04 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 54c | 99.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 54c | 93.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.27 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 54c | 87.52$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 70c | 84.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 51c | 77.68$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 51c | 59.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92e…2e92backed Yes | 51c | 55.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 79c | 55.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x34bb…7f70backed Yes | 50c | 51.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba3…4e15backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 278 | 51.8%144 W · 134 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 50c | 48.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.07 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…2128backed No | 56c | 47.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 47c | 47.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 53c | 45.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…dfddbacked No | 50c | 44.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 52c | 37.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 53c | 36.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…5ffcbacked Yes | 47c | 36.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2189…13f1backed Yes | 46c | 36.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 54c | 30.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 53c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 51c | 27.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 43c | 26.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…a59bbacked Yes | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 48c | 23.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 55c | 20.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 80c | 18.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 17.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.