Other European Leagues · resolved market
Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x116f38ef2b63285799d45b386c7642bf6512e7e832ec10a7ea784467a3642c33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CD Nacionalof FC Porto, CD Nacional
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,160
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,160 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b22…c824backed FC Porto | 43c | 4,657$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed CD Nacional | 57c | 1,349$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.43 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked CD Nacional | 57c | 921$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.03 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed CD Nacional | 63c | 698.37$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.55 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed CD Nacional | 74c | 582.61$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.07 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed CD Nacional | 57c | 524$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.67 | 174 | 21.8%38 W · 136 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked FC Porto | 26c | 389.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…05c1backed FC Porto | 24c | 236.67$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.87 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked CD Nacional | 57c | 185.94$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 2,334 | 46.8%1,093 W · 1,241 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked CD Nacional | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed CD Nacional | 57c | 135$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 142 | 57.7%82 W · 60 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7839…54cbbacked FC Porto | 32c | 134.38$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked CD Nacional | 57c | 131.46$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.53 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed CD Nacional | 57c | 115$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 107 | 56.1%60 W · 47 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed CD Nacional | 57c | 106.71$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed FC Porto | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed CD Nacional | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed CD Nacional | 57c | 90$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed CD Nacional | 66c | 66.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed CD Nacional | 57c | 62.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +7.7wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed CD Nacional | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed CD Nacional | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed CD Nacional | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked CD Nacional | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked CD Nacional | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked CD Nacional | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed CD Nacional | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…004abacked CD Nacional | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed CD Nacional | 57c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf303…7ee6backed FC Porto | 47c | 57.45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked FC Porto | 28c | 56.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 501 | 46.1%231 W · 270 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked CD Nacional | 56c | 55.33$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed FC Porto | 28c | 51.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed CD Nacional | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked CD Nacional | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked CD Nacional | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…a205backed FC Porto | 34c | 45.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed CD Nacional | 73c | 43.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed CD Nacional | 68c | 42.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 648 | 42%272 W · 376 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked CD Nacional | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked CD Nacional | 76c | 32.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked FC Porto | 43c | 32.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 169 | 52.1%88 W · 81 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed CD Nacional | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed CD Nacional | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed CD Nacional | 56c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7945…0a9abacked FC Porto | 44c | 28.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…29a4backed CD Nacional | 58c | 25.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed CD Nacional | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked CD Nacional | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed CD Nacional | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed CD Nacional | 57c | 23.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9294…9d78backed CD Nacional | 58c | 23.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed CD Nacional | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed CD Nacional | 64c | 16.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Porto (-1.5)this page
- CD Nacional vs. FC Porto: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Nacional vs. FC Porto: O/U 1.5Under won
- CD Nacional vs. FC Porto: O/U 2.5Under won
- CD Nacional vs. FC Porto: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Nacional vs. FC Porto: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CD Nacional (-1.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: CD Nacional (-2.5)FC Porto won
- Spread: FC Porto (-2.5)CD Nacional won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.