Mls · resolved market
Columbus Crew vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x118af8187d542472e6c5d0cca6c7f82269f3181df781bbdd6557777c990aeb62
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,339
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,560
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,339 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 2,594$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828.18 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…a6fabacked Over | 34c | 1,132$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.15 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 61c | 780.3$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.43 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 60c | 680.91$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.81 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 34c | 537.03$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.86 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 33c | 503.41$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.29 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 39c | 312.83$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.89 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 29c | 310.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.15 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 46c | 293.14$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.84 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 34c | 282.97$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Over | 28c | 263$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 66c | 248.65$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 67c | 230.56$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.45 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 65c | 201.65$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.44 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 49c | 199.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.92 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 34c | 180$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 25c | 152.84$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 148.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 49c | 140.92$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.05 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 45c | 124.64$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 66c | 124.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 121 | 62%75 W · 46 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21db…2a42backed Over | 38c | 101.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.41 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 29c | 94.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 55c | 81.75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.13 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 53c | 81.37$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.25 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 28c | 78.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 23c | 70.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…8568backed Under | 57c | 65.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 47c | 58.48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 73 | 64.4%47 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 53c | 55.6$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 65c | 48.29$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 172 | 58.1%100 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c6…8e8fbacked Over | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Over | 42c | 39.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 43c | 37.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 109 | 57.8%63 W · 46 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 69c | 35.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 68c | 27.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 67c | 16.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed Under | 67c | 14.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Columbus Crew vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5this page
- Columbus Crew vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Columbus Crew vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)Columbus Crew won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-2.5)Philadelphia Union won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.