Mls · resolved market
Columbus Crew vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30a0f3f909d8d0c748437ee2fb27423beeca1996db2ff889cd274f5e43bd21f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,202
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,202 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 55c | 2,733$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.65 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 1,570$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$853.82 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 1,388$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.29 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 47c | 1,034$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.46 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 138 | 44.9%62 W · 76 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 51c | 476.82$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.65 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 58c | 476.18$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.06 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 60c | 355.56$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.02 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 45c | 221.15$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.82 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 45c | 169.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.27 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…c867backed Over | 72c | 158.3$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.97 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c744backed Over | 56c | 133$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.48 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 50c | 128.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.28 | 190 | 56.3%107 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 50c | 125.85$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.92 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 62c | 114.83$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 59c | 84.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 43c | 74.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 45c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.4 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 56c | 43.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 46c | 40.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.81 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 35c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc551…fa51backed Over | 53c | 36.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 89 | 71.9%64 W · 25 L | +17.2wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa38e…8917backed Over | 53c | 36.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +8.8wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 53c | 36.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 187 | 74.3%139 W · 48 L | +33.5wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 53c | 36.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Over | 53c | 36.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 167 | 44.3%74 W · 93 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 53c | 28.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a91…7ebabacked Over | 55c | 26.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9317…5a5fbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460d…9d5fbacked Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Over | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc6…c936backed Over | 78c | 19.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 53c | 18.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Columbus Crew vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 2.5this page
- Columbus Crew vs. Philadelphia Union: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Columbus Crew vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Over won
- Columbus Crew vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5Under won
- Columbus Crew vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5)Columbus Crew won
- Spread: Columbus Crew (-2.5)Philadelphia Union won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.