WNBA · resolved market
Liberty vs Mercury
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x118cc98c9fe59ea29d31b5e72ec3c7176cc0c7c06af66ec37920c3288a5d4f58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mercuryof Liberty, Mercury
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,056
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Liberty | 34c | 9,402$3,192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,191.76 | 214 | 40.7%87 W · 127 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Mercury | 64c | 4,965$3,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,771.47 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ef…9e7abacked Liberty | 48c | 4,001$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920.32 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Mercury | 53c | 1,654$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$783.79 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Mercury | 53c | 1,488$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.36 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9700…0e70backed Liberty | 48c | 1,150$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Mercury | 53c | 1,050$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Liberty | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 175 | 41.1%72 W · 103 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7435…a620backed Liberty | 54c | 905.69$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Liberty | 38c | 900$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.87 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Mercury | 45c | 846.95$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.82 | 128 | 57.8%74 W · 54 L | +11.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Mercury | 54c | 800$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Liberty | 18c | 728.44$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.8 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Mercury | 54c | 683.33$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Liberty | 48c | 621.86$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 103 | 37.9%39 W · 64 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Liberty | 52c | 530$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.26 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98aa…fcb3backed Liberty | 51c | 400$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Liberty | 52c | 395.53$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.68 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Liberty | 18c | 363.15$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.01 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Liberty | 26c | 349$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Mercury | 49c | 301.85$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…f310backed Liberty | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Liberty | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x42e2…0b39backed Liberty | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed Mercury | 60c | 157.46$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…ba01backed Liberty | 40c | 151.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Liberty | 18c | 137.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Liberty | 49c | 126$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 128 | 33.6%43 W · 85 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Liberty | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b8…799cbacked Liberty | 48c | 117.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Liberty | 48c | 110$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Liberty | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Mercury | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Mercury | 69c | 94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…5256backed Mercury | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Liberty | 47c | 92.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…0952backed Liberty | 22c | 82.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 82 | 12.2%10 W · 72 L | -10.5wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8eca…6882backed Liberty | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Liberty | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0516…dbc2backed Liberty | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Liberty | 55c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 115 | 52.2%60 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Liberty | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Liberty | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Liberty | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 98 | 39.8%39 W · 59 L | +8.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Mercury | 53c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.