CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs HOTU (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x119e6f33df194efbc6716a94bf8f05f9233229a1e70618aa910a9819f0d345b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, HOTU
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,530
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,015
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,530 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 57,226$40,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,001.29 | 216 | 45.4%98 W · 118 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed HOTU | 29c | 11,321$3,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,243.22 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…414dbacked HOTU | 29c | 9,999$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,899.59 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…7c8cbacked HOTU | 30c | 9,980$2,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,993.99 | 214 | 24.8%53 W · 161 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988d…9899backed HOTU | 29c | 6,246$1,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,811.24 | 263 | 44.5%117 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked HOTU | 30c | 4,872$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.6 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed HOTU | 28c | 4,250$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,207.5 | 1,259 | 42.5%535 W · 724 L | +20.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98b1…d855backed HOTU | 24c | 3,453$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.64 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x538e…c195backed HOTU | 31c | 3,386$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.69 | 163 | 49.7%81 W · 82 L | -19.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…eaf3backed HOTU | 31c | 3,272$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.17 | 114 | 28.1%32 W · 82 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed HOTU | 25c | 2,840$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.76 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Natus Vincere | 78c | 1,248$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed HOTU | 31c | 1,160$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.6 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6903…b6f9backed HOTU | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed HOTU | 29c | 888.88$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.78 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Natus Vincere | 77c | 849.44$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.41 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 716$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.96 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked HOTU | 29c | 699.99$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed HOTU | 31c | 626.76$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.21 | 426 | 38%162 W · 264 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…79f9backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 532.58$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.77 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -13.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked HOTU | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed HOTU | 27c | 465.52$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 131 | 46.6%61 W · 70 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed HOTU | 30c | 428.09$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.43 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed HOTU | 31c | 377.42$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed HOTU | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 613 | 38.2%234 W · 379 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…914abacked HOTU | 28c | 362.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…60e9backed HOTU | 11c | 361$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 550 | 43.1%237 W · 313 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…494fbacked HOTU | 21c | 304.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.14 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked HOTU | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 281.84$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.55 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed HOTU | 29c | 264$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.82 | 216 | 39.8%86 W · 130 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed HOTU | 6c | 260.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd053…3202backed HOTU | 15c | 250$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed HOTU | 31c | 241.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed HOTU | 20c | 205$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 384 | 52.3%201 W · 183 L | +10.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66a…9157backed HOTU | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 102 | 38.2%39 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bee…ca01backed HOTU | 29c | 155.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 143.83$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 234 | 54.7%128 W · 106 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe49c…773ebacked HOTU | 29c | 142.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.78 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 367 | 51%187 W · 180 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcfe…d420backed HOTU | 29c | 120.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 687 | 53.9%370 W · 317 L | -21.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40d5…bfe9backed HOTU | 30c | 110$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 633 | 45.2%286 W · 347 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked HOTU | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 421 | 49.6%209 W · 212 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…22a6backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…2501backed HOTU | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked HOTU | 18c | 99.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1,181 | 22.5%266 W · 915 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1357…4fd4backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 71.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecba…5fb4backed HOTU | 34c | 67.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…8a58backed HOTU | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 420 | 57.1%240 W · 180 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed HOTU | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 112 | 69.6%78 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked HOTU | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 354 | 54.2%192 W · 162 L | -20.1wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…e0d7backed HOTU | 29c | 44.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 211 | 41.7%88 W · 123 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0bc1backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 38.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.