NHL · resolved market
Ducks vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11b6ae82f66286a9c9b33d62a0d7fe17b8c669fa164e5addb682d965b58fb1f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,657
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Over | 53c | 7,131$3,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,362.8 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…c893backed Under | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Over | 54c | 3,701$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,702.52 | 296 | 51.7%153 W · 143 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 47c | 3,424$1,609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,609.24 | 221 | 50.2%111 W · 110 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 53c | 3,333$1,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,566.51 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Over | 54c | 1,935$1,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.1 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Under | 47c | 1,909$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.27 | 163 | 46%75 W · 88 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 1,825$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.12 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 1,716$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.36 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Over | 52c | 1,387$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.6 | 329 | 46.8%154 W · 175 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 46c | 1,385$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.1 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…4ce5backed Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 54c | 911$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.71 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c1…b4afbacked Under | 48c | 885$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60f…9ea3backed Under | 47c | 669.81$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.81 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 52c | 499.99$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.99 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Over | 54c | 483.33$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.33 | 140 | 65.7%92 W · 48 L | +13.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Over | 53c | 454.92$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.81 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 46c | 444$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.24 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 19c | 407$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.29 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 46c | 383.33$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.33 | 759 | 46.6%354 W · 405 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Under | 48c | 265$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 201 | 47.8%96 W · 105 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…e4a0backed Under | 48c | 229.17$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8a…b155backed Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | +10.3wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Under | 46c | 173$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 198 | 44.4%88 W · 110 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 46c | 76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 479 | 44.7%214 W · 265 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under | 46c | 69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.74 | 792 | 51.1%405 W · 387 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Under | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 583 | 46.5%271 W · 312 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 416 | 50.7%211 W · 205 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Under | 46c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Under | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 481 | 49.3%237 W · 244 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 291 | 47.4%138 W · 153 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Under | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 418 | 51.4%215 W · 203 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Under | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 472 | 49.2%232 W · 240 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf10…d318backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 189 | 31.2%59 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ducks vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5this page
- Ducks vs. BlackhawksBlackhawks won
- Spread: Ducks (-1.5)Blackhawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.