South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Atlas FC vs. Club Puebla end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11bb84a9e092806769fbfb1460ab1ec09cfcca477ea6ab2ecd9d7b6348cd5f80
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,442
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,442 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9024…a444backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…d361backed Yes | 21c | 952.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 867.02$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.67 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 562.11$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.95 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba36…52d0backed No | 71c | 230$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 24c | 151.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed No | 71c | 128$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bec…6997backed No | 71c | 123$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed No | 71c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 76c | 89.55$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -14%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed No | 71c | 78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…dce6backed No | 71c | 51$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 138 | 39.9%55 W · 83 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…48d8backed Yes | 29c | 49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…e0f5backed No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fc…2286backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked No | 71c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Yes | 29c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed Yes | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed No | 71c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f50…d342backed No | 78c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atlas FC vs. Club Puebla end in a draw?this page
- Will Atlas FC win on 2026-01-09?Yes won
- Will Club Puebla win on 2026-01-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.