Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11bdf16e15efbb05f3c4fc9f2a3be24d81c8d737fc9f8a7753258c2f04225a89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 73c | 473.4$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.56 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 375.15$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 343.69$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 36c | 305.98$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.41 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 33c | 202.76$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 17c | 183.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 20c | 174.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb697…9c56backed No | 20c | 174.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 173.88$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.98 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 72c | 159.58$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 11c | 135.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 61c | 135.5$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.08 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 58c | 116.73$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.29 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89e3…5d22backed No | 65c | 106.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 101.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes | 54c | 94.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7224…1b96backed Yes | 70c | 89.58$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.1 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 74c | 86.52$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 37c | 81.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 18c | 77.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 36c | 73.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 45c | 72.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.75 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 68.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 59c | 66.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 59.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.48 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 64c | 59.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 46c | 58.66$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 39c | 55.97$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.94 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 33c | 55.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 54.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2592…e908backed Yes | 70c | 52.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 35c | 49.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 29c | 46.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.02 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…6063backed No | 33c | 46.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 93 | 22.6%21 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 46c | 44.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 72c | 43.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 78c | 42.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…7efcbacked No | 77c | 42.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 68c | 39.11$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 61c | 38.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 52c | 36.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 69c | 35.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 38c | 32.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.32 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa233…dfe8backed Yes | 36c | 29.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 135 | 14.8%20 W · 115 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3182…4ff7backed No | 66c | 28.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 141 | 68.1%96 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked No | 46c | 28.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 28.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 60c | 25.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 53c | 25.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 53c | 24.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e6…6779backed No | 55c | 23.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf69a…90f7backed Yes | 44c | 23.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…52e4backed No | 65c | 22.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 70c | 21.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 66c | 21.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 66c | 21.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…23c7backed Yes | 57c | 19.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 69c | 19.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…dfdbbacked Yes | 55c | 18.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…6b01backed Yes | 68c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 79c | 15.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.33 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on April 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 67°F or below on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 68-69°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 70-71°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on April 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on April 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.