MLB · resolved market
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11be75dd0ae3b8f5e2ecb207109bbcfdd5e05f742bb2ef6b7c089124e2170cb0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arizona Diamondbacksof Milwaukee Brewers, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7239…6591backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 13,997$7,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,618.88 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 7,050$3,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,348.71 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 3,874$1,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,820.72 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 1,179$554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.11 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 47c | 1,150$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.54 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 48c | 300.23$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.55 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 57c | 179.58$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.01 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 172.73$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Milwaukee Brewers | 50c | 156.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 142.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ea…e15cbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 223 | 51.6%115 W · 108 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Milwaukee Brewers | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 69c | 70$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 50c | 52.85$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Milwaukee Brewers | 58c | 48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 47.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.