Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11cfd1648cb0d0a843882f5ea64df334002f33bf7aed5a5f540c396308af4ce9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,550
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,550 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 9c | 694.13$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 12c | 258.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 19c | 257.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0534…4300backed No | 62c | 248.79$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.53 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -4.8wins | -0.22per pick | 67cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 14c | 202.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 11c | 192.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 12c | 191.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 29c | 166.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.48 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 43c | 145$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 14c | 129.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 129.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…bffcbacked Yes | 18c | 122.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77e5…ec41backed Yes | 50c | 120.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 116.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 15c | 111.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 67c | 107.4$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 16c | 99.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 22c | 99.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 12c | 97.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 73c | 96.45$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 13c | 93.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ba…df9bbacked Yes | 21c | 93.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 92.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 83.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…82ebbacked Yes | 19c | 80.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 16c | 79.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…e60fbacked Yes | 51c | 79.25$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.24 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 71.39$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…7c44backed Yes | 19c | 70.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 14c | 69.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 23c | 69.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 41c | 65.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x66aa…5203backed Yes | 62c | 64.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55c5…d83bbacked No | 54c | 55.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f7…5a55backed Yes | 27c | 55.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…db39backed No | 78c | 51.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 56c | 51.25$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 60c | 44.15$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 45c | 42.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 78c | 41.21$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…7482backed Yes | 37c | 40.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 37.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 59c | 36.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 54c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28a1…69a1backed No | 58c | 34.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 74c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 35c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 78c | 31.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 60c | 31.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 41c | 30.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd9…ad53backed No | 66c | 24.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.