Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb51bc070274528461ea7b03a78d20d2a6aad5b1cbef6e77e3d2334261c1e4e61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,376
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,376 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 11c | 361.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 11c | 359.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 299.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 290.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da7…762abacked Yes | 6c | 274.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 18c | 211.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 20c | 200.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed Yes | 17c | 195.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 71c | 186.52$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 21c | 176.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…76b2backed No | 77c | 163.44$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 149.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 148.98$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 72c | 141.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 15c | 126.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes | 32c | 122.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 101.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 37c | 93.05$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ad…b263backed Yes | 25c | 91.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 29c | 79.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 22c | 77.14$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 33c | 74.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 63.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 63.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 18c | 61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 28c | 60.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 59.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 21c | 54.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c1…0193backed Yes | 23c | 43.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 30c | 39.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4430…a0a8backed Yes | 31c | 35.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 35.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…95a1backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c0…ae83backed Yes | 39c | 27.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 122 | 23%28 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 25.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed2…ad97backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1edf…6be6backed No | 72c | 23.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 22.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebfc…46e8backed No | 72c | 20.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 62c | 18.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed No | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 74c | 14.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on March 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 75°F or below on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.