TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,311

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,311 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc876…8711backed No0c2,394$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6440%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa96a…1377backed No67c731.46$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.0754143.6%236 W · 305 L-12.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e7f…44d4backed No45c570.34$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.0424966.7%166 W · 83 L+15.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x78c3…7003backed No6c570.03$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.542544%11 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No15c456.08$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5359742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No25c338.55$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1772222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x919d…f1b1backed Yes49c259.03$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.9810051%51 W · 49 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+29.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c244.83$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.5617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No68c241.59$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.1191967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes61c237.29$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2986226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ddb…3fa9backed No64c233.11$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.3631319.2%60 W · 253 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4635…6c48backed Yes46c216.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.486735.8%24 W · 43 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-31.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes32c215$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.334,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No12c209$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5486050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd98d…1179backed Yes26c199.28$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.823231%72 W · 160 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3e…cc39backed Yes79c193.63$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.734148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No14c172.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5133620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0534…4300backed Yes58c149.05$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.242245.5%10 W · 12 L-4.8wins-0.22per pick67cpaid-28.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes34c146$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9335843.9%157 W · 201 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a35…6387backed Yes31c136.46$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.165928.8%17 W · 42 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No68c131.27$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.458,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x486b…d12abacked Yes76c131$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.44742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick66cpaid-44.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes55c130.32$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4816144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd4a9…75f9backed Yes40c123.2$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.4526253.4%140 W · 122 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe34…8ee7backed No71c116.34$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.0416355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes58c115.55$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.5510780.4%86 W · 21 L+21.9wins+0.20per pick60cpaid+37.4%equal weight68+0.17 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6744448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b40…96e3backed No74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7452245%235 W · 287 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4541767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes31c99.11$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.325029.2%73 W · 177 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c97.52$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes28c90$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.83,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes28c90$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.281029.1%236 W · 574 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf01…79b6backed No49c84.86$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.98665.1%56 W · 30 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x74aa…ce7bbacked Yes70c82.86$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.863100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+67.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes49c76.23$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.8829642.9%127 W · 169 L+19.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+12.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes28c74.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.841,02230.6%313 W · 709 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No34c72.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.571,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x479e…56cabacked No73c70.8$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.426446.9%30 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes40c66.65$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.3134618.8%65 W · 281 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-15.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No67c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.954966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf904…115fbacked No76c59.16$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451050%5 W · 5 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-33%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes35c55$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39c0…ae83backed Yes32c52.66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8312223%28 W · 94 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6077…8a56backed Yes57c52.59$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5910956.9%62 W · 47 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes31c52.31$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.312,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9791…a14abacked No24c52.13$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6619461.9%120 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick63cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes40c46.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.8318164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xe31e…ec88backed Yes33c45.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.2555919.1%107 W · 452 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2967…4ae7backed Yes45c44.08$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.2425725.7%66 W · 191 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+21.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c8…d7c5backed No47c42.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2024149.8%120 W · 121 L-10.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No57c41.83$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2498160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28a1…69a1backed No51c41$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.915040%20 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x76a2…6651backed Yes34c40.5$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.714637.7%55 W · 91 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes36c39.02$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8811044.5%49 W · 61 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66aa…5203backed Yes55c36.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.475042%21 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-26.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa92f…58b4backed Yes56c35.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-70.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes77c35.58$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.3432044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b22…8945backed No63c35.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3725341.5%105 W · 148 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fbc…4105backed Yes34c35.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2233726.4%89 W · 248 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbd9…ad53backed Yes58c34.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.756376.2%48 W · 15 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+16.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x83fe…23d9backed No74c33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4232760.6%198 W · 129 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes49c31.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.191,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e76…65bdbacked No68c28.42$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.223141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0514…4fefbacked Yes42c28.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4319531.3%61 W · 134 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe228…1e29backed No69c27.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.067530.7%23 W · 52 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9cde…86c4backed No47c27.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.761735.3%6 W · 11 L-4.0wins-0.24per pick59cpaid-51%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1726…1ad4backed No67c23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.416753.7%36 W · 31 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+25.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5e2…a410backed Yes51c22.37$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.932254.5%12 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-23.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes49c21.53$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0612230.3%37 W · 85 L-11.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No74c21.33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.731,00260.9%610 W · 392 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e1a…8218backed No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d98…a232backed Yes51c19.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.53250%16 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeed2…ad97backed No70c19$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.214047.5%19 W · 21 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf820…2e3fbacked Yes67c18.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No68c17.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1959440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No69c17.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.191,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No65c16.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.93,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4262…d125backed Yes77c15.32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.523946.2%18 W · 21 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+19.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65a7…ab77backed No67c15$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.12466.7%16 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.