MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11dd3223a00892f7f2ca33ae13f4497c523b36fe37e72abf7f48c4f6f37327e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Atlanta Bravesof Baltimore Orioles, Atlanta Braves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 5,508$1,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,241.13 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Atlanta Braves | 77c | 3,685$2,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.58 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Atlanta Braves | 79c | 1,871$1,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.74 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 266.52$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 265$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.1 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Atlanta Braves | 78c | 210.84$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.38 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 179.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.33 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Baltimore Orioles | 7c | 167.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 129.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe0…cc67backed Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Atlanta Braves | 66c | 114$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.76 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5663…f2e5backed Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 86.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +10.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Atlanta Braves | 79c | 19.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 175 | 50.3%88 W · 87 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Atlanta Braves | 65c | 15.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Atlanta Braves | 66c | 15.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Atlanta Braves | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore OriolesAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.