MLB · resolved market
Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc1008c2721a3aa767882b2c8b2fa2bad08ce63d0216615c82b429c2026d778f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 15,091$7,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,997.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 53c | 9,450$5,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,008.49 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 6,365$3,884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,481 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,550 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 52c | 3,545$1,847 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,846.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 53c | 3,060$1,622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,621.61 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa084…bb99backed Under | 47c | 3,059$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,609.67 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 53c | 1,555$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.15 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 53c | 1,365$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.45 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 1,332$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.3 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 1,235$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 53c | 1,117$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.82 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 48c | 927.44$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.99 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 48c | 822$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.44 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 49c | 703.49$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.78 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 43c | 700$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Over | 53c | 700$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 61c | 689.8$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.02 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Over | 52c | 674$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.48 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 51c | 666.12$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.72 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 53c | 655$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.99 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf636…5465backed Under | 49c | 530.38$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.31 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 490.35$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.79 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 49c | 401.82$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.93 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Under | 64c | 354$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.44 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x648f…bb7bbacked Over | 52c | 338.15$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.85 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 48c | 205$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.6 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…86d3backed Over | 39c | 199.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.7 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 53c | 189.54$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47b…c6b1backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -11.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 38c | 184.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 52c | 166.61$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.64 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 47c | 143.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Over | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 52c | 138$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 55c | 137.65$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 55c | 128.48$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 51c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Under | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 356 | 50.6%180 W · 176 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed Over | 52c | 74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 140 | 47.9%67 W · 73 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 58c | 61.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…014abacked Over | 51c | 51.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 247 | 49%121 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 52c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1c…4caabacked Over | 54c | 47.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 47c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 49c | 45.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Under | 49c | 45.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 52c | 43.73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…66f7backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 48c | 40.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x74d5…1ca9backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 47c | 36.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 49c | 35.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…9070backed Under | 48c | 34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 48c | 31.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked Over | 52c | 30.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 52c | 30.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 48c | 29.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7521…c083backed Over | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 61c | 16.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore OriolesAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.