MLB · resolved market
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8e8f2f908953894c92b683aff7bdda54419b7bfb606774e60aac9af55e06c3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 1,819$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.67 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Atlanta Braves | 27c | 972.63$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.32 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Baltimore Orioles | 80c | 700$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Atlanta Braves | 26c | 640.78$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.21 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 70c | 623.03$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.71 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 551.23$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.62 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 425.28$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 391.98$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.4 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 276.2$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.72 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Atlanta Braves | 30c | 261.38$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 239$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.21 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Baltimore Orioles | 77c | 232.16$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 203.02$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.02 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 185.71$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Atlanta Braves | 34c | 185.02$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.98 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Baltimore Orioles | 80c | 147.69$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Baltimore Orioles | 61c | 144$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.16 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Atlanta Braves | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 99 | 45.5%45 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Atlanta Braves | 38c | 124.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.19 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0882…dceabacked Atlanta Braves | 17c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 91.09$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.76 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 79.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Atlanta Braves | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 570 | 46.8%267 W · 303 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Atlanta Braves | 71c | 61.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.81 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Baltimore Orioles | 42c | 56.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Atlanta Braves | 39c | 48.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Atlanta Braves | 26c | 46.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 45.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 74c | 42.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Atlanta Braves | 58c | 40.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…cc57backed Baltimore Orioles | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Baltimore Orioles | 63c | 27.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Baltimore Orioles | 49c | 23.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Atlanta Braves | 70c | 18.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Atlanta Braves | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)this page
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore OriolesAtlanta Braves won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 4.5Over won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 5.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Atlanta Braves (-2.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Atlanta Braves won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Baltimore OriolesNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.