NBA · resolved market
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks: Game 2
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11e9b2ee15e30f101b64ae57ea1da334a9110632264943d977fb9cd8c312e217
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Timberwolves, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,858
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,858 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8add…cdc4backed Mavericks | 37c | 1,346$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…f823backed Mavericks | 31c | 1,215$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.42 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +8.4wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Timberwolves | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Timberwolves | 68c | 831.03$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.1 | 795 | 49.7%395 W · 400 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Timberwolves | 67c | 600$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf4…7883backed Mavericks | 32c | 555$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.4 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…d337backed Timberwolves | 69c | 422$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.18 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked Mavericks | 32c | 250$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Mavericks | 31c | 221.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.95 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6678…d4b6backed Timberwolves | 69c | 210.75$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.42 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Timberwolves | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Mavericks | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Mavericks | 31c | 65.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 228 | 32%73 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed Timberwolves | 52c | 62.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 84 | 36.9%31 W · 53 L | -10.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e51…7538backed Timberwolves | 50c | 62.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0dacbacked Mavericks | 50c | 52.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Timberwolves | 68c | 37.23$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 121 | 31.4%38 W · 83 L | -7.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…6732backed Mavericks | 33c | 30.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2618…e270backed Timberwolves | 69c | 15.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…ff8dbacked Timberwolves | 69c | 15.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.