Mls · resolved market
New England Revolution vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11eb4477b1d4a11a84a6fbd0b4151321b50eac2cb4053965ce9df4d5a8c5269d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,330 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 1,183$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.74 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 57c | 664.99$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.94 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 22c | 592.27$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.68 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6b09…2c43backed Under | 43c | 502.18$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 15c | 492.81$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 24c | 295.55$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +12.1wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x07b3…e3ccbacked Over | 21c | 284.81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 51cpaid | +200.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…c1c3backed Under | 79c | 284.81$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d25…5f2ebacked Over | 20c | 281.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28fe…9bc3backed Under | 80c | 281.25$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Over | 31c | 212.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.52 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +8.5wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 43c | 153.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over | 15c | 150$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 77c | 133$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 17c | 85.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 17c | 83.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.14 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 31c | 75.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.56 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 17c | 72.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e08…19cabacked Over | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d9…5a08backed Over | 77c | 24.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Under | 71c | 19.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd866…55e0backed Over | 68c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb9…54b5backed Over | 79c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.66 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New England Revolution vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 4.5this page
- New England Revolution vs. FC Cincinnati: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New England Revolution vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 1.5Over won
- New England Revolution vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 2.5Over won
- New England Revolution vs. FC Cincinnati: O/U 3.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.