Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11f2c967b3d8e2566e4990f12e5feafa229ba6bfaeb2713abaa2c2ac365ee8ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,980
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,980 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 39c | 3,730$1,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,264.61 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 1,981$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.54 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Over | 58c | 1,870$1,085 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,084.54 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 1,580$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.46 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c4…2852backed Under | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e3…ae22backed Over | 66c | 1,500$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 34c | 1,136$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.42 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over | 61c | 1,016$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 964.89$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.39 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 63c | 837.4$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 60c | 826.53$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.58 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 61c | 781.2$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.95 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 71+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 64c | 781.2$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.97 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 62c | 642.55$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 53c | 634.25$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.18 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb1…984ebacked Over | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 34c | 513.61$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.98 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 38c | 511.08$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.87 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Over | 55c | 506.65$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.66 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 35c | 504.25$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.06 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 59c | 500$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 61c | 494.62$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 38c | 388.3$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.55 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 58c | 345.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked Over | 67c | 279.66$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e46…ae6dbacked Over | 67c | 254.42$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 64c | 235.31$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 58c | 204.53$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked Over | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…cc6cbacked Under | 46c | 186$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.44 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 48cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 66c | 154.55$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 44c | 147.07$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.43 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -7.5wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 140.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.52 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 50c | 138.98$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 57c | 138.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked Under | 49c | 124$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.14 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Under | 31c | 109.68$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.44per pick | 36cpaid | +127.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 48c | 105.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.25 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.99 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 60c | 83.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Under | 39c | 81.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 59c | 81.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…1d66backed Under | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…c06dbacked Over | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 48c | 76.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd418…d11fbacked Under | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Over | 59c | 64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 70c | 57.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…fbb3backed Over | 75c | 54.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafdd…ae76backed Under | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf29…7a51backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Under | 43c | 49.08$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.87 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 33c | 49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…c75bbacked Over | 65c | 46.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 59c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Over | 66c | 44.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…5857backed Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 46c | 37.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…e592backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a1…1c72backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Over | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +80%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Over | 65c | 30.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa16…b066backed Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…b300backed Over | 56c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…703cbacked Over | 58c | 23.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c8…bc51backed Over | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 53cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa967…a71dbacked Under | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.