Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x180523e2b312f03a3cdfc28a787c0a5e787589f6ea89d3d8a9584ac38a62202a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,694
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,694 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 61c | 7,975$4,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,106.83 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…44fcbacked Over | 46c | 5,455$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 4,433$2,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,983.66 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 39c | 3,832$1,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,475.31 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xef04…9ef0backed Under | 58c | 2,504$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +236.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 33c | 2,498$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$833.29 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 42c | 1,709$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.98 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 38c | 1,250$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.98 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | +13.1wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 71+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 44c | 915.23$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.7 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Over | 4c | 829.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.42per pick | 14cpaid | +367.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 45c | 798.13$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.18 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Under | 75c | 666.3$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.3 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 57c | 535.44$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.24 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 57c | 467.46$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.01 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…280cbacked Under | 55c | 400$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 40c | 346.52$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 55c | 307.01$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.19 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…c46ebacked Over | 43c | 287.22$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.46 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Over | 41c | 246.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…18a0backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 65.8%48 W · 25 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 45c | 180$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…d943backed Under | 57c | 176.72$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 42c | 151$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.06 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…534cbacked Over | 51c | 116.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 42c | 112.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 28c | 107.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 31c | 106.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 45c | 103.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 69cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ab…ff0cbacked Under | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 69c | 99.99$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.99 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Under | 62c | 90.38$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Under | 73c | 82.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 40c | 81.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f9…3ab4backed Over | 36c | 80.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…c75bbacked Over | 39c | 70.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafdd…ae76backed Under | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9456…44b1backed Under | 56c | 69.39$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Over | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 35c | 57.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Over | 45c | 55.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…be64backed Under | 57c | 54$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb089…a271backed Over | 38c | 52.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef5…e940backed Under | 59c | 51.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 54c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…17cebacked Under | 57c | 50.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafc1…21cfbacked Over | 44c | 50.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…df24backed Over | 44c | 45.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 113 | 51.3%58 W · 55 L | +11.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7467…0026backed Over | 43c | 45.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 44c | 44.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Over | 43c | 44.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -63%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 37c | 42.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd758…9d8bbacked Under | 57c | 42.53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed Over | 26c | 41.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…c06dbacked Over | 44c | 40.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef51…f58dbacked Over | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 28cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa15…95e3backed Over | 26c | 38.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b55…2b97backed Over | 43c | 36.47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd1…5490backed Under | 60c | 36.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4c…77bdbacked Over | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…d67dbacked Under | 80c | 35.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9c…e0e1backed Over | 44c | 34.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb7…2765backed Over | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…703cbacked Over | 37c | 33.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1067…11d5backed Under | 59c | 31.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…568abacked Over | 37c | 29.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9041backed Under | 57c | 29.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…5cfabacked Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Under | 63c | 25.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 42c | 23.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed Under | 70c | 22.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Under | 58c | 19.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37a3…8d6ebacked Under | 59c | 17.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.