Australian A League · resolved market
Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe87f3a4229714608b33e4ac82d7085d2c6f07439ea6446c3f531372124dd88e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 76c | 2,022$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.57 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 26c | 1,300$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 27c | 1,100$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 74c | 1,085$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.55 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 19c | 814.75$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.51 | 63 | 73%46 W · 17 L | +19.0wins | +0.30per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 24c | 611.83$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.99 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab5f…4175backed Under | 78c | 531$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +120.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 86 | 25.6%22 W · 64 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 9c | 438.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 349 | 37.8%132 W · 217 L | -13.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad6…666fbacked Under | 76c | 436$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 78c | 364.55$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.12 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 24c | 253.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad7…c097backed Over | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +83.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0272…ef18backed Under | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 76c | 90.25$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc1d…9fe1backed Under | 74c | 68.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 70cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…219ebacked Under | 77c | 66.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 77c | 51.4$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 309 | 54.7%169 W · 140 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf6…c75bbacked Over | 23c | 51.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb4…d481backed Under | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 76c | 33.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Under | 75c | 33.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Adelaide United FC vs. Macarthur FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.