Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11fcaa71b21c35a6138562bec0d5e6849f3c10caac9037af6e94fe57ac423594
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,771
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 64c | 400.11$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 27c | 264.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.94 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 69c | 247.35$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.38 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 79c | 239.36$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.53 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 234.95$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 12c | 208$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.91 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 185.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.91 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 27c | 175.02$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc16…1094backed Yes | 66c | 152.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.54 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 140.62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 20c | 120.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.17 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 15c | 113.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 16c | 110.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116a…a2f2backed Yes | 42c | 103.49$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.99 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 29c | 92.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 14c | 82.85$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.25 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb64a…f2fabacked Yes | 53c | 76.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 59.64$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 62c | 58.47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 26c | 57.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 33c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 26c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.68 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 67c | 46.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 64c | 43.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 30c | 42.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 52c | 40.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 56c | 37.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 37c | 30.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 55c | 27.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x816d…47d0backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 79c | 19.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 68c | 17.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 66c | 15.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56a…6d6dbacked No | 79c | 15.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df2…1b2bbacked No | 71c | 15.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 74c | 14.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 74c | 14.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 77c | 13.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on July 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on July 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on July 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.