MLB · resolved market
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1202a727f6045d2d8abda4a706e82c53068e0fa494e76ab4f2e44c339f58e5ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Arizona Diamondbacks, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,327
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,018
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,327 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 3,437$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.57 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 16c | 1,101$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.16 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 24c | 767.22$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.39 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 429.37$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.28 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…283abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 420.48$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.6 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 406.33$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.66 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa31a…d023backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 16c | 375.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 9c | 359.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7533…0ec2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 142.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 127.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.52 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 77c | 108.7$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951a…8c9dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 98.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 27c | 95.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c1…7e8ebacked Washington Nationals | 59c | 40.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 39.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 34.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 33.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 30.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Washington Nationals | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 131 | 55.7%73 W · 58 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Washington Nationals | 59c | 24.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.