MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b035b26ae6af2a70dc322b49def270f25dd6744f3ebe3b0beb4d29fbd1f0507
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,985
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,167
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,985 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 17,260$12,772 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,487.58 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 8,396$2,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,205.93 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 6,923$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Washington Nationals | 54c | 6,000$3,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,760.05 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 47c | 5,034$2,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,372.73 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Washington Nationals | 72c | 2,555$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.66 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 2,247$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,143.46 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 1,539$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.96 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 1,385$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 1,192$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.1 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 723.99$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.96 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 25c | 723.99$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 490.86$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.62 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 42c | 439.5$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 404.2$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.88 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 288$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…0c5fbacked Washington Nationals | 78c | 235.67$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.85 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Washington Nationals | 74c | 224.8$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 67c | 201.05$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.75 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 65c | 199.97$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.98 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 192.29$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 180.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 150.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.14 | 253 | 57.3%145 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 30c | 149.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 52c | 124$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.48 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Washington Nationals | 70c | 115$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 46c | 99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 34c | 93.36$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 40c | 82.9$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4788…6bc3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 29c | 77.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 26c | 54.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 586 | 49.5%290 W · 296 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Washington Nationals | 48c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 57c | 28.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d0…8e20backed Washington Nationals | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 321 | 57%183 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Washington Nationals | 51c | 20.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 17.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.