MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a8b51601383117200b5a4d3ff3ea215ff47ea0023f3f3db97708751781a8b6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,208
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 20,769$9,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,025.51 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Under | 57c | 17,420$10,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,419.67 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 55c | 7,502$4,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,375.84 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 48c | 1,902$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 52c | 1,902$989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 43c | 1,805$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.25 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 54c | 1,800$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$828 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 1,745$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.63 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 46c | 1,304$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 49c | 1,200$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.75 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 44c | 1,125$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.82 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 54c | 745$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.7 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 43c | 697.67$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.67 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 54c | 653.51$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Over | 47c | 633.98$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.83 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 49c | 591.81$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.82 | 295 | 47.1%139 W · 156 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb8…3058backed Under | 79c | 523$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.82 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7677…37c0backed Over | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 328 | 50%164 W · 164 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 54c | 356.46$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.81 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 276.04$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.98 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 266.38$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 43c | 253.64$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.12 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 43c | 240$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 44c | 209$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 38c | 197.09$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.35 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 193.72$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 76c | 188$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 53c | 140$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.8 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f3…1f2abacked Under | 53c | 125.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 47c | 116$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 47c | 114.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 47c | 112.86$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 66c | 88.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Over | 33c | 69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 303 | 40.6%123 W · 180 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 48c | 66.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 54c | 59.97$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 43c | 45.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 38.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 54c | 27.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 45c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 24.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 53c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb649…e8b2backed Over | 57c | 19.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Under | 61c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 7.5Under won
- Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Arizona DiamondbacksYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.