Earnings · resolved market
Will Allbirds (BIRD) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1204dc7352df96e2ebd536331c3c0d99c860442344b6cb952652e1f5ab2d1e0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,712
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 78c | 1,003$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.49 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 35c | 558.09$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.79 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 399.48$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.67 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked Yes | 29c | 213.49$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0472…c62fbacked Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 12c | 185.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb394…7eb0backed Yes | 68c | 148.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes | 11c | 140$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked No | 46c | 108.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.22 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b96…7f2dbacked Yes | 65c | 107.54$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 34c | 107.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1146…7ebdbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes | 55c | 99.46$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 35c | 97.33$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.26 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 63c | 54.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a8…e7bcbacked Yes | 58c | 51.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765c…dbb6backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5780…dd00backed Yes | 73c | 40.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 71cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d1e…8213backed No | 33c | 39.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.28 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 64c | 35.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…60c5backed Yes | 69c | 33.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 60c | 31.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…06ebbacked Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…4323backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dd…ff1bbacked Yes | 66c | 26.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked Yes | 75c | 26.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ab…d202backed No | 44c | 24.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…1a22backed Yes | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2f2…3098backed No | 77c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…6863backed Yes | 69c | 20.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9d5abacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6699…cb99backed Yes | 65c | 15.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.