Australian A League · resolved market
Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-01-17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x121000ccdf0ac81f4c0c7b3c3142a6904725f9f100f05f0668df58fe2a0ba50b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,662
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 74c | 1,564$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.3 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 72c | 710.01$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.58 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 29c | 533.52$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.06 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeddf…a953backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4daa…6920backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 69c | 212.57$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.93 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 22c | 196.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -5.5wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 27c | 157.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 24c | 145.08$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 72c | 137$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Yes | 32c | 118$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Yes | 20c | 109.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked No | 72c | 94.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd107…5473backed Yes | 28c | 88.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 26c | 88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 29c | 81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c3…7d73backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 83 | 26.5%22 W · 61 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…5b6fbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1c…dc02backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…bb19backed Yes | 32c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed No | 76c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…b505backed No | 77c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2026-01-17?this page
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Macarthur FC end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Macarthur FC win on 2026-01-17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.